User guide
Welcome to Atlas. This guide walks you through the typical workflow: build a portfolio → run a scenario → read the results → export a report.
1. Build a portfolio
Open Atlas, go to Portfolio Builder in the sidebar. Either:
- Paste a list of tickers + weights into the table, or
- Click Import from CSV and select a file with
ticker,weightcolumns, or - Settings → Integrations → import your Stock Analyzer watchlist (read-only).
Click Save when the weights sum to 1.0.
2. Run a scenario
Go to Scenario Engine. The defaults are:
- Horizon: 252 trading days (1 year)
- Paths: 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
- Block length: 21 days (preserves monthly correlation patterns)
Click Run scenario (or press ⌘R). On an M4 Pro 24GB this completes in under 5 seconds for a 30-stock basket.
3. Read the probability fan chart
The chart shows three nested bands:
- Outer (light): 95% of simulated paths fall in here.
- Middle: 80% of paths.
- Inner (dark): 50% of paths.
- Solid line: the median.
Read the horizon table below: for each horizon (1d, 1w, 1m, 1q, 1y, 5y) it lists p05 / p50 / p95 and P(loss) / P(loss > 10%).
4. Stress scenarios
Six built-in stress scenarios run automatically:
| Scenario | What it asks |
|---|---|
| Rates +100bps | Sudden parallel 100bp Treasury curve shift |
| Equities -20% | Hypothetical 20% global equity drawdown over 30 days |
| Oil -30% | Crude oil drawdown |
| USD +10% | Trade-weighted USD strength |
| Taiwan Crisis | Semiconductor supply-chain disruption |
| US Recession | -25% equities + +200bp credit spreads |
These are what-if exercises — hypothetical shocks, not forecasts.
5. AI commentary
The AI Commentary page generates a 4-6 paragraph narrative on the scenario. Three backend options:
- MLX (default): local Llama 3 8B via Apple MLX. ~30 tokens/sec on M4 Pro 24GB. Zero network.
- Ollama (fallback): local Llama 3 via the Ollama daemon.
- Anthropic (opt-in): cloud Claude via Atlas Live or your own API key.
- Apple Foundation Models (macOS 15+): on-device, zero-install.
Every commentary is post-checked against a list of forbidden marketing / advisory phrases. If the model produces any of them, Atlas refuses to display the response. See the methodology page for the rationale.
6. Export to PDF
⌘⇧P (or File → Export PDF Report) saves a 5-page printable PDF.